Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +176 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has garnered 75.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Leonard Fournette has run for 0.53 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.6% red zone run rate.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.76 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season.

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