Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 62.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accumulate 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.3%) versus RBs this year (75.3%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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