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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+116/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -147.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (72.2%) to RBs since the start of last season (72.2%).

The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a measly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

More Leonard Fournette Player Props

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