Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:19 AM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (76.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.