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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+114/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 3.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Leonard Fournette has put up a mere -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile among running backs.

Leonard Fournette's 16.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 22.3.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 25.0) vs. running backs this year.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.8%) versus running backs this year (68.8%).

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. running backs this year, conceding 3.74 yards-per-target to the position: the least in football.

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