Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:24 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) to RBs since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (76.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, conceding 5.32 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.