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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-680).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -642 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -680.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Leonard Fournette's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 85th percentile for RBs.

Leonard Fournette ranks in the 92nd percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (85.4%) to running backs since the start of last season (85.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).

Leonard Fournette has put up a measly -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 2nd percentile among running backs.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the least touchdowns through the air in football to running backs: 0.00 per game this year.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 9th-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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