Leonard Fournette Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 2:35 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+433/-984).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -952 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -984.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Leonard Fournette has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Leonard Fournette's 21.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 93rd percentile for RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 6th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Leonard Fournette's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.7% to 68.8%.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.