Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 27, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accumulate 13.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 31.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (65.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.9% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.