Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to total 17.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.2% in games he has played).
Latavius Murray has rushed for significantly more yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 11th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Latavius Murray's rushing effectiveness (3.95 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (25th percentile among RBs).