Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+124/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 15.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (67.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.8% in games he has played).
Latavius Murray has run for a lot more yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Latavius Murray's ground effectiveness (3.95 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile among RBs).

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