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Latavius Murray

Latavius Murray Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-487).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +311 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +283.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.

Latavius Murray has rushed for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (89th percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (10.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (37.1% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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