Latavius Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+212/-324).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -324.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
Latavius Murray has received 41.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has rushed for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among RBs (88th percentile).
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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