Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+126/-164).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Latavius Murray has been much less involved in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for just 32.5% of snaps compared to 52.3% last year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Latavius Murray's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching ability over last season's 0.1 rate.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

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