Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 1:21 PM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+141/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -179 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (85.2%) vs. RBs this year (85.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray's 4.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in the league: 24th percentile for running backs.
Latavius Murray has been among the weakest running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging just 0.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among RBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.