Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Latavius Murray has been among the bottom pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a lowly 0.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 2nd percentile among RBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.