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Latavius Murray

Latavius Murray Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to notch 2.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.

Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his team's pass game this year (8.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (2.9%).

The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Latavius Murray has been among the worst pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a lowly 0.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 2nd percentile among running backs.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (78.5%) to running backs this year (78.5%).

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