Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Latavius Murray has been among the worst running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a mere 0.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 1st percentile among running backs.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.