Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -234.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Latavius Murray has been on the field for 47.3% of his offense's snaps this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Latavius Murray has been among the weakest pass-game RBs this year, averaging a mere 0.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 1st percentile among running backs.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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