Latavius Murray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to accrue 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this week (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.2% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray has accumulated a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile among running backs.
Latavius Murray has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (1.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.

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