Latavius Murray Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his team's running game this year (47.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (33.5%).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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