Lamar Jackson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+285/-345).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Ravens being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
The Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (42.3 per game) this year.
Lamar Jackson's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.7% to 68.2%.
This year, the deficient Buffalo Bills defense has given up a monstrous 2.50 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.
The Bills cornerbacks project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 55.4% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (48.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Baltimore Ravens.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are forecasted by the projections to run just 62.9 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is projected by the projections to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.2.
Accounting for 14.3% of his team's red zone rushing play calls this year (83rd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a serious weapon in the run game near the end zone.

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