Lamar Jackson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 1:22 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+228/-276).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -291 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -276.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Lamar Jackson's 67.9% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful boost in his passing accuracy over last year's 63.7% mark.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Tennessee's group of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the best in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Right now, the 2nd-most run-centric team in the league in the red zone (49.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Baltimore Ravens.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 124.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
The Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 52.3 plays per game.