Lamar Jackson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense last year: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.7% red zone run rate.
In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projections to wind up with the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.8.
Accounting for 13.1% of his offense's red zone carries last year (84th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Lamar Jackson's mobility makes him a serious threat in the run game near the end zone.

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