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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +178.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The model projects Lamar Jackson to be much less involved in his team's running game near the goal line in this game (16.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played).
  • Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.6% to 70.7%.
  • With an outstanding ratio of 2.00 per game (97th percentile), Lamar Jackson rates among the best TD throwers in football this year.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).

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