Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 2:07 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Lamar Jackson's 67.9% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful boost in his passing accuracy over last year's 63.7% mark.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects the Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 124.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
The Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 52.3 plays per game.