Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/+117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the shaky Cowboys defense has been torched for a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in the league.
The Cowboys defense has been torched for the most passing TDs in the league: 2.11 per game since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their pass rush.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-worst pace among all games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Baltimore Ravens since the start of last season (only 52.2 per game on average).