Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense last year: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 54.3% red zone pass rate.
In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projections to wind up with the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.8.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year.