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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

Lamar Jackson has been among the top touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a fantastic 1.80 per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

The Commanders defense has been gouged for the most touchdowns through the air in football: 2.20 per game this year.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Washington's CB corps has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a massive 8-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (52.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Ravens.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is expected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 28.2.

More Lamar Jackson Player Props

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