Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+118/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 76.9% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football in this regard has been the Ravens.
When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league against the Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being a heavy 7-point favorite this week.
The projections expect the Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.56 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.1 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest among all QBs.

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