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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Lamar Jackson grades out as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL last year with an impressive 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (48.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Baltimore Ravens.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the league versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (68.5% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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