Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+148/-195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Lamar Jackson's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 71.3%.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 29.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the tough Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed a paltry 1.14 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.

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