Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have run the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.8 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have used play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.

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