Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL versus the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (74.4%).
The New York Jets linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

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