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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

In this contest, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the projection model to notch the 2nd-most carries among all QBs with 8.2.

With a fantastic rate of 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (98th percentile), Lamar Jackson has been among the best running QBs in football since the start of last season.

Lamar Jackson's 10.64 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year signifies a material gain in his rushing talent over last year's 7.09 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Ravens have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.3 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.

Lamar Jackson has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this year (17.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (26.1%).

Since the start of last season, the daunting Detroit Lions run defense has yielded a meager 97.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

More Lamar Jackson Player Props

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