Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accumulate 11.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (35.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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