Lamar Jackson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+153/-216).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +159 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (30.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.9% in games he has played).
Lamar Jackson has run for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in football among QBs (89th percentile).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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