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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

New York Giants vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-258).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -252 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -258.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more integral piece of his team's run game near the goal line this week (28.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.5% in games he has played).

Lamar Jackson has run for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among QBs (94th percentile).

The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.2 plays per game.

The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.20 per game) against the New York Giants defense this year.

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