Lamar Jackson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his team's run game near the goal line this week (23.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
Lamar Jackson has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (94th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have rushed for the least TDs in the NFL (0.25 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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