Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 22, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 229.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 229.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (42.7 per game) this year.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.
With an outstanding total of 249.0 adjusted passing yards per game (77th percentile), Lamar Jackson stands as one of the leading passers in the league this year.
With a remarkable 8.48 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson ranks as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (260.0 per game) against the Buccaneers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.
The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.22 seconds per snap.
In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is expected by the predictive model to have the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.5.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.16 adjusted yards-per-target: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

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