Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 241.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 232.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 241.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
Lamar Jackson has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (217.0) this year than he did last year (191.0).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 33.2 passes this week, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.

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