Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 227.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 220.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 227.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have run the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.8 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.87 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in football.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have used play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.