Lamar Jackson Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Pass Attempts

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

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