Lamar Jackson Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Interceptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.7.
In tallying a measly 0.27 interceptions per game this year, Lamar Jackson slots in among the best QBs in football (78th percentile).
The Steelers have intercepted 1.14 throws per game this year, grading out as the 7th-best defense in football by this metric.

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