Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Lamar Jackson's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 73.7%.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-fewest of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a paltry 65.7% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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