Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Lamar Jackson's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 68.9%.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This week, Lamar Jackson is expected by the model to wind up with the 6th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.
This year, the fierce Rams defense has surrendered a meager 64.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.

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