Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Ravens as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to earn 9.8 carries in this contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.
Accounting for 30.1% of his team's carries this year (95th percentile among QBs), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a serious threat with his legs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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