Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to garner 9.3 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to run the ball, taking on 29.7% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among quarterbacks.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's DE corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

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