Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accumulate 10.0 carries in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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