Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 48.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Lamar Jackson is projected by the model to accrue the most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 9.3.
Making up 30.1% of his offense's rushing play calls this year (100th percentile among QBs), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a dangerous threat with his legs.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cincinnati's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

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